20 Expert Picks
All indicators this weekend in KC are that the Padres have a lot more bite than this succession of mediocre teams the Royals have been capitalizing upon almost the entire season, with a schedule that has broken incredibly kind. The Padres, however, are liking what they see of KC pitching, bludgeoning 18 runs across the plate in the first two games of this weekend set to put them on the verge of a sweep. Cole Ragans has been one of those KC pitchers to benefit from the favorable slate, while Michael King has given San Diego up to seven innings in his recent, mostly-serviceable starts. Play Padres on Money Line
This has been a low-scoring series thus far at Chavez Ravine, just five runs in each of the first two this weekend leading up to this rubber match. After being held out of his scheduled start on Monday, Austin Gomber is back on the mound for Rockies as their poster child for improved pitching in May, when he posted an 0.68 ERA across four starts. On the road, however, Colorado can't be trusted to score many runs, and note that LA's Gavin Stone is off of seven stellar innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing no runs and just three hits in a 3-0 LA win. Play Rockies-Dodgers "Under"
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Chris Bassitt has hit at least five strikeouts in three of his last four and I'm not going to overthink this one based on his lack of swinging strikes. He's getting called strikes to help supplement that and the Pirates make for a good matchup on strikeouts here, ranking inside the top-5 over the last few weeks for strikeouts vs righties, and that's held up over the full season too. Bassitt gets the benefit of pitching at home here as well, and at these odds I'm happy to back him for a 6th strikeout.
Morton has been over this line in three of his last four and he spoke about going after more K's in his last postgame interview, which I found intriguing. Hopefully the blow up by Chris Sale yesterday will allow Morton a little bit more run here and against Oakland, again, I'm happy to take the over.
Fairly steep runline price but hard to see the inept White Sox doing much of anything off Freddy Peralta. I wouldn't choose Pale Hose starter Nick Nastrini (0-4, 9.92 ERA) last for my slow-pitch softball team. Seriously, I'd rather play down a guy and let the opposing team be on the power play all game. Dude should not be in the Show. But it's Sunday and weird things happen on Sunday so watch our boy throw a no-no. If so, Nastrini would supplant Philip Humber as the worst White Sox pitcher ever with a no-hitter; Humber's was a perfect game in 2012. I think we are probably safe from worrying about this.
The Orioles have been pretty, pretty, pretty good to us this weekend and I see no reason why that changes Sunday. Don't know what has gotten into O's starter Cole Irvin, who has allowed just seven earned runs over his past eight starts. The Rays are 3-9 in their past 12 overall.
Locking this K Prop in, will update analysis ASAP!
Locking this K Prop in, will update analysis ASAP!
Locking this prop in, will update analysis ASAP!
If we're looking for a team to win a game on the road, it's Dallas. At 32-12-6 as a visitor this season, the Stars succeed on the road, and have played better away from the AA Center this postseason. What has perplexed in this series is the ineffectiveness on the power play; with the Oilers scoring a shorty back in Game 4, Edmonton has actually scored more off of a Dallas power play than the Stars. Getting shots thru the Oilers defense onto Stuart Skinner will be the task, but the Stars have played well with their backs to the wall in this series, getting several must-win games in earlier rounds, and we still like Jake Oettinger in goal. Play Stars on Money Line
Boston has won 12 of the past 14 meetings, and I like that to continue Sunday in the series finale. Tigers starter Casey Mize posted a 6.56 ERA in May, and over his last two starts he's struck out just two of 37 batters. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello also had a rough May, but he's been excellent at home (2.87 ERA) and the team has won seven of his nine starts overall. Back Boston before this price rises higher.
The Royals have lost three straight and six of seven and they're about to get swept by the Padres if they don't wake up. The Padres have won five of their last six playing well at the moment. Michael King has won four of his last five starts including his last two but he gave up six earned runs to Colorado two weeks ago. Cole Ragan is at home. He's got this, the last two times at home he didn't allow a run. Royals get the win.
You can see in my other write up why I like Colorado here. Dodgers pressing. Have yet to become what a lot of us thought they would be, and Rockies have been far more competitive last few weeks. Gomber keeps people off balance. LAD entered SAT just 4-6 in their last 10 and have struggled vs lesser divisional teams at home recently.